Is climate prediction model flawed?

Abstract

The article by Prof Alexander makes five main points, as follows: 1) There is a 21-year periodicity evident in a multi-year “rainfall cycle” in South Africa. 2) Based on this, it is possible to project rainfall and/or river flow changes by interpolation within this cycle (and an attempt at “verification” is presented). 3) The 21-year cycle implies that “current simulation models” of water resources should be rejected (although no “current simulation models” are referenced by the author). 4) Global climate model projections for South Africa are incorrect because they do not account for the 21-year cycle. 5) Climate change will not cause any negative impacts in South Africa – and more specifically, that there is no evidence that Kokerboom (Aloe dichotoma) populations are subject to early impacts of climate change (as one example).

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