A stochastic daily climate model for South African conditions

Abstract

Anabela de Gusmao Brandao and Walter Zucchini Motivation Effective water resources management is essential in a country like South Africa which is particularly prone to the adverse effects of drought. This will only become feasible when the risk associated with drought occurrences can be reliably assessed. Present methods of assessing the risk of adverse weather conditions are based on rainfall and streamflow only and do not take account of the many other climatic factors such as evaporation, humidity, wind run, temperature etc. Such factors play an important role in establishing drought conditions, especially in the agricultural sector. Methods, such as those based on the Palmer drought index, are purely descriptive and are designed to quantify what has happened in the past rather than what is likely to happen in the future. These methods are therefore of limited use for planning purposes.

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