Historical rainfall trends in South Africa: 1921–2015

Abstract

The aim of this study is to update the analysis of historical rainfall trends with reference to the work from previous studies, through optimizing the highest spatial resolution with the longest possible period of analysis, i.e., 1921–2015. Two interlinked datasets, namely the district rainfall and individual rainfall stations datasets were used for the trend analyses, namely, daily time series of 60 individual rainfall stations and the daily district rainfall of 88 of 94 rainfall districts in South Africa. The extreme precipitation indices defined by the World Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were applied. In general, the results show an increase in rainfall for most rainfall stations in the southern interior of South Africa, and indications of decreases in rainfall in the far northern and north-eastern parts. The increase in the annual rainfall in the south is reflected in the seasonal trends, where summer rainfall shows a similar increase, but also extends into the central interior.

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