Investigation into increasing short-duration rainfall intensities in South Africa

Abstract

Extreme storms in South Africa and specifically in the Western Cape have been responsible for widespread destruction to property and infrastructure, even leading to displacement and death. The occurrences of these storms have been increasingly linked to human-induced climate change that is expected to cause more variable weather. Studies on climate circulation models for future climate conditions project that rainfall in the Western Cape and wider South African region is to become more intense and extreme. Sub-daily rainfall for 3 stations in the Western Cape and 4 stations in the rest of South Africa were analysed in order to determine if any trends towards more intense and extreme rainfall are observed and whether the trend is unique to the Western Cape or indicates a wider trend. This study explores this expectation by using historical short-duration rainfall (less than 24 h) for 7 stations in the Western Cape and South African region. Digitised autographic and automatic weather station 5-min rainfall data were combined to extend the effective record length.

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