South African water news November 2016

Abstract

Fluid Thoughts Fluid Thoughts Drought 2016 – Ushering in a new cycle of extreme weather patterns Despite recently good rains, South Africa remains in the throes of a drought episode, and one that mirrors the 2015 phenomenon of a drought-heat wave combination. This is in spite of the fact that the worst El Niño cycle in more than twenty years has ended. The South African Weather Service predictions are optimistic and indicate that we will have a return to reasonable rainfall patterns this summer in terms of volume, but chronologically shifted. It also appears that one of the important changes, as indicated in earlier Water Research Commission (WRC) reports, is that while the overall seasonal rainfall volume may be similar to normal rainfall years, the rainfall episodes are shorter and more intense. The recent flash flood episodes are testament to this new pattern. We also know that recovery to normal storage in our dams will be a multi-year project, and we need to be wary of the possibility of an early intense La Niña, flood cycle.

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