Evaluation of potential changes in hydrologically relevant statistics of rainfall in Southern Africa under conditions of climate change

Abstract

Scenarios of present, intermediate and future climates for Southern Africa were analysed to evaluate potential changes in hydrologically relevant statistics of rainfall that could be observed this century as a result of climate change. These climate scenarios were developed in previous studies by applying empirical downscaling techniques to relatively coarse-scale climate scenarios simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 3rd and 4th Assessment Reports (TAR and AR4, respectively). The regional climate scenarios were available at a daily time-step and for a spatial grid resolution of 0.25° over Southern Africa, comprising South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. In the study, the regional climate scenarios were related to the 1946 quaternary catchments in the region since the possible hydrological impacts of climate change will ultimately be assessed explicitly by applying the regional climate scenarios in a daily time-step hydrological model.

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