A model for the identification of tropical weather systems over South Africa

Abstract

South Africa forms the southern end of Africa with its northern boundary at approximately 22°S and the southern-most point, Cape Agulhas, at approximately 35°S. During most of the year atmospheric circulation over South Africa, especially the central and southern regions, is dominated by extra tropical weather systems such as cut-off lows, cold fronts and the ridging Atlantic Ocean High. Weather forecasters in South Africa are trained on and experienced in forecasting rainfall from these systems. During late summer weather systems from the tropics invade the northern regions of South Africa. Because tropical weather systems only appear during three or four months of the year weather forecasters often lack the experience to identify them timeously. Invading tropical weather systems are often associated with heavy rainfall and flooding (February 1988, February 1996, February 2000). It is very important that forecasters identify these tropical systems and apply appropriate forecasting techniques.

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