Hydrologic-economic appraisal of life-cycle costs of inter-basin water transfer projects

Abstract

This article describes research that compares actual water transfers of an inter-basin transfer (IBT) scheme with its original, appraisal stage, prediction. Transfers are shown to be significantly less and also more variable than predicted. Further research reveals that the state of the receiving system has a large bearing on year-to-year decisions regarding water transfers. Past appraisals, following what is called the Incremental Approach, do not adequately consider the stochastic nature of the likely future inter-basin transfer operating regime. Examination of six case studies, four South African, one Chinese and one Australian, shows that the Incremental Approach is still in general use – despite tools available for an improved approach. A new approach, called the Comprehensive Approach, is proposed to upgrade estimations of variable costs associated with water transfers – often substantial life-cycle cost components of IBTs.

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