Groundwater management under uncertainty: A multi-objective approach. Part 1: Theoretical framework. Part 2: Application of methodology

Abstract

A methodology is developed for determining a robust optimal strategy for a groundwater hydraulic control problem posed within the framework of stochastic multi-objective optimisation. The methodology explicitly considers uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and allows decision-makers (DMs) to evaluate trade-offs among three conflicting objectives: aquifer yield, investment and operational cost, and recourse cost (penalties) incurred if the stipulated constraints are violated. The model includes a two-stage decision process in which the first-stage decision (commonly referred to as “here and now”) on how many wells, their pumping rates and their locations is made and implemented immediately without the foreknowledge of the outcome of the uncertain parameters. At a later stage, when the uncertain parameters become known, a second-stage decision is taken using the updated data. Applicability of the methodology is demonstrated through a hypothetical (but realistic) example.

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