A short-range weather prediction system for South Africa based on a multi-model approach

Abstract

The accurate prediction of rainfall events, in terms of their timing, location and rainfall depth, is important to a wide range of social and economic applications. At many operational weather prediction centres, as is also the case at the South African Weather Service, forecasters use deterministic model outputs as guidance to produce subjective probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The aim of this research was to determine the skill of a new objective multi-model, multi-institute probabilistic ensemble forecast system for South Africa. Such forecasts are obtained by combining the rainfall forecasts of 2 operational high-resolution regional atmospheric models in South Africa. The first model is the Unified Model (UM), which is operational at the South African Weather Service. The UM contributes 3 ensemble members, each with a different physics scheme, data assimilation techniques and horizontal resolution.

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