The use of seasonal forecasts in South Africa during the 1997/98 rainfall season

Abstract

Forecasts can never be perfect, but with improved understanding of South Africa’s climate systems, the ability to predict certain climate scenarios s increased. The South African Weather Bureau is obliged to forecast these different weather and climate scenarios, while government and the private sector have a role to play in advising the public, and farmers in particular. Since climate scenarios such as seasonal drought cannot be prevented, the farming community and other water sensitive sectors of society has to accept variability and adapt to it as a normal part of management. A wide range of measures is required in response to climate variation, such as the improvement of early warning systems and the co-operation between different private and public sectors. During the 1997/98 rainfall season in South Africa, warnings of a strong El Niño event developing stimulated a great awareness and need for seasonal climate prediction by the public.

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