Loss functions for structural flood mitigation measures

Abstract

The paper aims at discussing the methodology used to develop loss functions for flood mitigation measures, using historic data of flood damage to infrastructure. The main determinants of the extent of damage are the size of the flood and the length of the infrastructure within the boundaries of the flood-line. In regression analysis, flood peak was used as the independent variable in the Cobb-Douglas functions to depict the relationship between damage and flood peak. The Mfolozi flood-plain in Northern KwaZulu-Natal served as the study area. Loss functions for infrastructure, for ex ante estimation of damage to infrastructure, were developed for inclusion in a flood damage simulation model (FLODSIM) developed by the Department of Agricultural Economics of the University of the Orange Free State in collaboration with the Water Research Commission. Loss functions were determined for spillways, levees, tramlines, public roads, drains and bridges.

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